This seems like an odd thing for us to blog about, but boingboing has pointed us towards an interesting lecture on the psychology of probablistic thinking. Namely, how bad human brains are at thinking rationally about economic decisions, but more broadly, how we let things like terrorism frighten us, why we play lotto, and why we have all sorts of other stupid quirks of decision making that prevent us from doing the logical thing.

I can't help thinking as I listened to this lecture about how it also reflects why we make a lot of bad political decisions, and why a lot of people mistrust journalism, science, and politicians. Not that one should lose their scepticism of any institution, but why the complaints are often the wrong ones. Attention is often focused on the great failures and abuses rather than the consistent and excellent work that is often done, day after day, by all sorts of dedicated professionals. The result? A generalized mistrust that prevents people from making rational choices or taking intelligent political positions. After all, why believe any information that counters your political beliefs when you can dismiss politicians as corrupt, journalists as fabricators, and scientists as frauds?

Anyway, an interesting listen, I only wish you could see the slideshow at the same time or see video.