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Thursday, July 20, 2006

Correlation is not causation
Ack! Crappy science crappy science! Say it with me everybody, correlation does not equal causation!

The American Journal of Public Health reports that seniors who stop driving are four times more likely to require nursing hope care:

A new study finds that seniors who don't drive are four times as likely to enter assisted living centers compared to those who stay behind the wheel.

Researchers interviewed 1,593 people aged 65 to 84 over a 10-year period. All the study subjects lived in the semi-rural town of Salisbury, Md.

"We are not recommending continuation of driving for seniors who are a threat to themselves or others on the road," said study leader Ellen Freeman of the Johns Hopkins Wilmer Eye Institute. "Instead, we hope that understanding the very real health impact that losing the ability to drive has on seniors will encourage families to plan contingencies to assist elderly members with transportation issues."



Ahh! No, no, no. We keep seeing stupid studies like this being misinterpreted. Whether it's kids who drink early are more likely to be alcoholic or seniors who don't drive more likely to need nursing care, these authors can not seem to figure out the basic flaw of their research, that correlation is not causation.

Maybe, just maybe, when people finally force their elderly relatives to stop driving it's because they already need the additional help and supervision of a nursing home. Did they consider that? Isn't it highly likely that not being able to drive, rather than the cause of institutionalization, is the the final nail in the coffin before people put their parents in the old folks' home?

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