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Monday, October 23, 2006
Iraq is so screwed
Bush assembles his generals to provide window dressing for his continued failure to address the catastrophic idiocy of his Iraq policy. Meanwhile, Moqtada al-Sadr's militia has gone ahead and fulfilled the last requirement of civil war, that is, seizure of a geographic territory, if only briefly.
And Shiite Iraqis, more disturbingly, support Sadr's militia as they see it as more effective in protecting them from attacks by Sunni insurgents. So, we're in a catch-22. We cannot secure the country by disarming the militia, since the people aren't being protected by the Iraqi government and there is popular demand for the militias to remain armed. We either need to dump 200k more troops there to actually secure the country, or make the Iraqi security forces capable of providing security. If we can't realistically meet either of these two goals (and I think it's clear we can't), it's time to leave, now. |
2 Comments:
And Shiite Iraqis, more disturbingly, support Sadr's militia as they see it as more effective in protecting them from attacks by Sunni insurgents.
My opinion, but I think you got this wrong. No freaking way Shiites and Sunni's can get along, and this civil war was inevitable lacking oppressive military and political conditions. The Shiites are clearing out Sunnis in preparation for an anticipated partition, and much less as a method of protecting other Shiites from insurgency. The Sunni bombings of Shiite mosques is a military strategy that has several real benefits:
1. Situational Instability -- keeps the public at large destabilized and enraged
2. Keeps assets busy -- US and government could be providing infrastructure, instead providing security
3. Makes the US position untenable as guarantor of security or basis of government
There are more reasons, but those are just off the top of the head. Smart shit and ruthless.
Tell the truth -- are you shocked and awed yet? I wasn't at the start of the war, but I am now.
12:19 PM, October 23, 2006
Not shocked, I think we anticipated this would be a shitstorm from the beginning.
I really started getting that sinking feeling - like when you wake up the morning before a midterm and you haven't studied - when looting was rampant after the initial invasion. That pair of mistakes, sending the Iraqi army home and allowing anarchy were irrevocable.
4:17 PM, October 23, 2006
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