Give Up Blog

Thursday, October 12, 2006

Iraqi deaths

I was waiting to discuss this Lancet paper on Iraq war deaths as I wanted time to read through what they did and have statistically-inclined people like MarkCC at Good Math, Bad Math have at it. I can see no flaws other than the slight overrepresentation of Baghdad in the clusters (it is slight and not likely to be a major shift in numbers). The consensus at the other science blogs seems to be this is a really well done, well-researched paper with legitimate methodology. Here are the findings.

Findings Three misattributed clusters were excluded from the final analysis; data from 1849 households that contained 12,801 individuals in 47 clusters was gathered. 1474 births and 629 deaths were reported during the observation
period. Pre-invasion mortality rates were 5·5 per 1000 people per year (95% CI 4.3-7.1), compared with 13.3 per 1000 people per year (10.9-16.1) in the 40 months post-invasion. We estimate that as of July, 2006, there have been 654,965 (392,979-942,636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2.5% of the population in the study area. Of post-invasion deaths, 601,027 (426,369-793,663) were due to violence, the most common cause being gunfire.

Interpretation The number of people dying in Iraq has continued to escalate. The proportion of deaths ascribed to coalition forces has diminished in 2006, although the actual numbers have increased every year. Gunfire remains the most common cause of death, although deaths from car bombing have increased.

Sounds like we have Saddam beat hands down. Although we're guilty of more of a criminal negligence/manslaughter or reckless heart homicide rather than any kind of first-degree murder or genocide.

2 Comments:

Ted said...

Sounds like we have Saddam beat hands down. Although we're guilty of more of a criminal negligence/manslaughter or reckless heart homicide rather than any kind of first-degree murder or genocide.

When global warming and its results manages to kill billions through our inaction will it also be attributed to criminal negligence and manslaughter? It's not like we're doing it on purpose, but it does just happen to be the consequence of political action. A lot of people before the war indicated that this is a very bad thing, but the media loves a good story more than a good discussion of issues. Bombs and graphics are visually cool, and political discourse is boring. Global warming is a very bad thing, yet politics and media make excuses for inaction. No lesson to learn there. Ever.

I'm often told that we have the capacity to act intelligently, but I've still to see it played out -- most of the recent evidence of intelligence seems to be self-congratulatory and enthusiastic blog fiskings and much less something pragmatic that keeps away sunburn or methane hydrates.

I am not encouraged by the currently equivocating distinction of being killed for the wrong reasons because it still demonstrates gross incompetence and I'm not sure that gross incompetence is preferable to evil result-wise. Also, I'm pretty sure to most of the dead Iraqis and to their families, the fact that they're dead overrides that moral excuse of incompetence. But like all gods, we are arbitrary and the sooner brown people everywhere wrap their head around our arbitrary and random rage, the better.

I think the general view on this is that although Saddam would have killed many of these people just to get a nut off, we just don't even care enough to count them or bury them.

11:35 AM, October 13, 2006

Rev. Dr. said...

I certainly care, but the problem is you try to act on science like this and the Republican denialist machine is already in full gear. They won't accept the science even though it's a completely valid methodology, and instead just come up with bullshit numbers they've pulled out of their own ass.

I almost feel that we're just recording our position for posterity, but this administration is so far from being responsive to the people, or giving a shit what anyone thinks that short of a revolution there isn't much we can do.

I'm looking forward to when we do progress to a higher level of civilization, because I believe one day the people running this administration are going to end up in some form of jail or other for torture, illegal imprisonment, or illegal war. Although what they really deserve is a rope and a short drop. 600 thousand people, damn.

1:41 PM, October 15, 2006